Global Currency Crisis & Gold – What’s Really Going to Happen in 2011 – 2012

Following on from the first 2 parts in this series: Whats really going to happen in 2010 Whats going to happen in 2010/2011 – part II Another great writer and analyst makes it into our categories section, Bob Chapman of Global research with a seminal must read piece outlining the road ahead towards a new [...]

Gold – The ONLY Real “Flight to Safety”

by admin on 26/08/2010

If you pay any attention to the financial situation at the moment, you are very likely aware that the whole world and his mum are piling into bonds, as a perceived “Flight to safety” trade currently. There are those of us who feel that considering what’s coming (global economic collapse) and considering that:

“Bonds have historically always proven to be certificates of guaranteed confiscation” - Ludvig Von Mises

And that given the “herd” behaviour that drives bubbles,  and that currently you are being promised a laughably low 4% ish for lending your money to the bankrupt US Govt for 30 years, that this is not all that bright..

Graham Summers from www.gainspainscapital.com is one of those who thinks the same as we do. – Over to Graham..

The “Flight to Safety” Trade Your Broker Won’t Tell You About

Quietly and with little fanfare, Gold has made a MAJOR change in its status. The precious metal is largely viewed as THE anti-paper money play by investors. Given that the world’s central banks (with perhaps the exception of China) have maintained only one response to every issues that arises in the markets (print or spend money) Gold should be soaring.Indeed, EVERY single new bailout or stimulus or monetization should push Gold higher. In fact, we should be seeing a kind of gradual awakening for investors as they realize that each one of these bailouts brings us closer to the “end game” in which throwing money at the world’s financial problems has failed.

This gradual awakening should be illustrated by the price of Gold rising ever higher and higher. Instead, we’re getting choppy sideways action and corrections from the non-fiat currency. Europe announced a $1 trillion bailout in mid-May. And the US has just announced QE 2.0, or the monetization of another $340 billion in US Treasuries last week.

All in all, that’s some $1.34 trillion anti-paper money policy announced. In the context of this, Gold should be going through the roof. Instead, it’s gone sideways showing no gains for the time between these two announcements.

What gives? Isn’t Gold supposed to benefit from increase monetization and paper money being thrown around like confetti? Well, historically it has. Indeed, for most of its bull market Gold moved in inverse relationship to the US Dollar.

This all changed in November 2009. What happened then? The Sovereign Debt Crisis began in earnest with Dubai asking for a six-month extension on $60 billion worth of debt.

At this point, Gold broke away from its traditional relationship to the US Dollar. Indeed, since then Gold has actually moved in tandem with the US Dollar. The correlation between the two is not perfect, but generally Gold and the Dollar have moved together both to the upside as well as the downside.

This indicates that as of November 2009, Gold officially became a “flight to safety” play on par with the reserve currency of paper money: the US Dollar. In plain terms, Gold is no longer a US Dollar hedge, it is a sort of reserve currency of its own, tracking its paper money counterpart, the US Dollar.

More evidence of this comes from Gold’s relationship to the Euro. From 2001-late 2009, Gold and the Euro were the primary anti-Dollar plays for the financial world. This changed when the Sovereign Debt Crisis shifted from Dubai to Greece, crushing the Euro. Indeed, when you look at the chart below, it is clear that the end of 2009 represented the end of Gold’s correlation to the Euro as an anti-Dollar hedge, and the beginning of its status as a standalone flight to safety play akin to the US Dollar.

In plain terms, the Sovereign Debt Crisis has been a game-changer for Gold, breaking it away from its traditional status as an anti-Dollar hedge and making it a kind of stand-alone secondary reserve currency next to the US Dollar.

Will this new relationship hold up in a Crash? It is difficult to say. Gold certainly held its ground well during stocks’ “initial drop” from late-April to early July. After a brief hit following the “flash crash” in early May, the precious metal quickly rebounded and held its ground while stocks plunged to new lows.

Pay close to attention to how Gold reacts during the “next leg down” in stocks. If it bounces back quickly again after a brief dip then it is officially a stand-alone “flight to safety” play. And I bet it’s one your broker won’t tell you about.

Good Investing!

I’m giving away this metric with every trial subscription of Private Wealth Advisory. If you’re wondering what’s going to happen to Gold today, you can sign up for Private Wealth Advisory, get the answers you’re looking for, and try out my trading ideas for 30 days, ALL while still qualifying for a full refund.

If at any point during those 30 days you decide Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, simply drop me an email and I’ll issue a full refund, no questions asked. My proprietary “buy and hold” trigger for Gold is yours to keep even if you choose not to stay with me.

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