Global Currency Crisis & Gold – What’s Really Going to Happen in 2011 – 2012

Following on from the first 2 parts in this series: Whats really going to happen in 2010 Whats going to happen in 2010/2011 – part II Another great writer and analyst makes it into our categories section, Bob Chapman of Global research with a seminal must read piece outlining the road ahead towards a new [...]

Gold Price Correction – A Little Perspective

by admin on 11/12/2009

If you watch CNBC you have to chuckle with their continual over-dramatization of every little twitch in the Gold price.  Consider the Chart below GLD Daily.

gold daily chart

You can see the horizontal green line is the peak @ $1225, the Orange line was the traditional high, $1000 per Oz, and even with this “catastrophic bursting bubble:)   we’re only still:

Only half-way back to the previous record highs, which we only broke through a mere 2 months ago..

Jeff Clark astutely pointed out the leverage involved with Gold and the Dollar today, yes they are inversely linked in movement, but weighted (leveraged) heavily in Gold’s favour as the quoted article below explains

Long-term readers know that gold moves inversely to the dollar, meaning if the dollar drops, gold tends to rise (and vice versa). This happens with about 80% regularity. But what many gold writers haven’t acknowledged is the leveraged movement our favorite metal has demonstrated this year to the world’s reserve currency.

The U.S. dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, has dropped 7.8% so far this year (as of December 3). Meanwhile, gold is up 38.7% year-to-date.

In other words, for every 1% drop in the dollar index, gold has risen 4.9%. If that approximate percentage holds over time, one can begin to estimate what the gold price might be if you know what the dollar might do.

While the dollar is likely to bounce at some point, making gold correct, the long-term fate of the dollar has already dried in cement. If the dollar were simply to return to its March 2008 low of 71.30 next year – a 4.6% drop from current levels – this would imply a rise in gold of 22.5% and a price of about $1,478 an ounce.

The long-term scenario is more dramatic. If you believe the dollar will lose half its value from current levels, this would imply a gold price around $4,164. If you believe it will lose 75% of its value, gold would reach about $5,642. Doug Casey has called for a $5,000 gold price; if he’s right, guess what that implies for the dollar?

And think about this: these calculations ignore what else might “show up,” such as when price inflation shows up in the economy, the greater public shows up to buy gold, or the Chinese don’t show up at an auction. Could $5,000 gold be too low?

Unless you think the dollar’s problems are solved, its eventual demise is gold’s eventual glory.

Prepare, and invest, accordingly.

If you don’t already get the Casey Research mailout, you should do.

Then you’d understand that given a little time this little dip will prove to be just another re-gathering, re-grouping, re-charging..


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